I’m banging my head on the table! Why would I do this? I got into weather forecasting for charity response organisations, chiefly Wessex 4×4 Response, because the main line media weather forecasts bias to the worst case conditions. More recently they don’t forecast at all, until the last minute. Either way that’s no good if you want to make reasonable plans.
I don’t want to go into pages of ramblings about my beef here but the media isn’t working well for us at all, for whatever is the reason. Right now the coverage about this virus is set to cause out right panic. Inaccurate weather forecasting is minor in the face of this. A report today stated 600,000 will die in worst case conditions. 600,000 is approximately 1% of the total population of the UK, which happens to be the statistical mortality rate of the virus. Someone found a calculator it seems. To what time frame this refers to is not mentioned. This is totally unnecessary reporting because of what it does not say. Its designed to scare and I want to know why.
What it doesn’t say is not everyone will get the virus. It assumes an unhindered exponential infection rate, which basically means we are sitting back and letting it run wild. We are not, we are isolating people, infected or “just in case”, we are tracing contacts. In general we are watching our hygiene. We are changing our life style to reduce contact. The virus will not wait forever. You can’t catch Ebola in the UK because its not here to catch. Unless something totally unexpected were to happen then there is no way I can see that we will get anywhere near 600,000 deaths
Oddly enough the IETs monthly magazine that was issued, ironically, in November 2019, carried a large analysis of things that could “Wipe us out”. Some of it just isn’t going to happen, Zombie Apocalypse for example. Others could. One is Pandemic.
The Spanish Flu ran from 1918 to 1920. It killed 50 million worldwide. If it came back today Covid-19 would look like a head cold. The Scientist refereed to that particular flu strain as follows –
In the laboratory that virus is till one of the absolute “hottest”, most virulent viruses that anybody works with in terms of “Flu”. It’s not [as simple as saying] that was 100 years ago, today it wouldn’t be a problem. No, that is one mean motherfucker of a virus. If we saw that virus today, it would be ugly.
I was surprised it got past the IET editor. He clearly had a lot of respect for its potential. But lets consider this. 450 people die, everyday, from Cancer alone. That’s 165,000 a year. Then, lets consider that this Covid-19 is likely to take out those with other conditions. Is it fair to blame it alone for the final act?
We must make ready and this is the simple methods how.
- Eat well, drink plenty and get plenty of sleep. Your body will be strong if it is attacked.
- Reduce your contact with others. Don’t go out unless it is necessary. If you do then keep clear of other people ( I’m sure they will be grateful too).
- Watch your hygiene, wash your hands, keep surfaces clean. Do all you can to keep the virus out of your home.
- If the virus does affect you, or your family, then maximum precautions. Separate rooms for each, separate towels, flannels and take your toothbrush with you. Regularly clean everything to gets touched. Keep the house warm and keep windows on the ventilate position. This lowers the Relative Humidity and makes life hard for the virus outside the body.
